Former President Donald Trump warned Iran on Wednesday that a successful assassination attempt would trigger devastating military strikes, declaring he has instructed advisors to “bomb them at levels that they’ve never seen before.”
The warning followed U.S. intelligence assessments indicating Iran was actively planning to target Trump. Trump’s statement abandoned typical diplomatic restraint, spelling out explicit consequences without qualifications.
The Warning
“I’ve left instructions – if anything happens, to just literally bomb them at levels that they’ve never seen before,” Trump said in a statement. He did not specify which military options would be deployed or the precise scale of potential strikes.
Trump cited Iran’s recent military vulnerabilities. “Their nuclear sites are rubble. Their air defenses are gone. Their military leadership has been substantially reduced,” he said, describing what he characterized as Iran’s current defensive weaknesses.
How Deterrence Works Here
Trump’s strategy relies on deterrence theory-the principle that rational actors avoid actions when facing catastrophic consequences. By leaving instructions with unclear operational details, Trump allows Iran’s leadership to calculate the full range of possible responses.
If an assassination attempt succeeded, Vice President JD Vance would assume the presidency and determine how to execute Trump’s stated instructions. Vance has maintained a consistent hardline position toward Iran.
The Intelligence Picture
U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran possesses both the capability and intent to target Trump. Security analysts pointed to recent immigration policies as creating operational openings for Iranian agents to enter the United States.
Recent presidential security decisions, including a last-minute aircraft change at a NATO event, reflected assessments of credible threat intelligence regarding Iranian operational planning.
Iran’s Mixed Messaging
Iran has pursued both diplomatic channels and public threats simultaneously. Assassination threat banners appeared at recent state funerals even as Iranian officials indicated interest in negotiating with the incoming administration.
Trump’s warning makes clear that Tehran’s calculation of costs has shifted unfavorably, security analysts said.
